Housing Market Indicators: Under-The-Radar Data

For anyone leaping into the spring sales and buying season – usually the busiest time of year for transactions – it’s essential to do as much research as possible on housing market indicators.

There are obvious ways of doing this, such as checking the two big house price indices from Halifax and Nationwide. Also, keeping abreast of market reports here on Move iQ is helpful. But if you want a finer grain of detail, where should you look?

There are a few sites and services I use regularly which are not high profile, but which give valuable insight into what’s happening. Sometimes they provide very early indicators of housing market changes. These changes only surface in the main indices some months later.

Is this all too much information? I don’t think so. After all, if we buy a household item, we might check out independent reviews, speak to friends with a similar device, and then scour online and in shops for the best price. So why not do the same for what is, after all, the biggest investment you’ll ever make. At least until you buy your next home! So here are my five under-the-radar market intelligence websites.

UK Government House Price Index (UKHPI)

Another index? Really? Well yes, and many experts say this one’s the best of the lot!

Unlike Nationwide and Halifax (based on mortgage offers made by those companies to their customers) or the Rightmove index (consisting of the asking prices when homes first go on the market) the UK HPI is based on actual completed sales. This includes both cash sales and those with mortgages.

It’s updated every three months and usually gives a more accurate picture of what buyers actually pay for homes. This is rather than how much they borrow.

You can analyse the figures down to a local council level, or by property type. So, for example, you see the house price movements of terraced houses in Swansea or flats in Plymouth.

Interest rate indicators

There’s huge interest in this topic right now, interest rates. Only around half of all privately owned homes still have mortgages. However, the so-called ‘base rate’ set by the Bank of England every few weeks creates the mood music for the housing market generally.

If rates rise, buyers tend to reduce in number with less confidence in how the economy is performing. However, a fall (and we’ve seen two of them in recent months) typically acts as an encouragement.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report may not sound like an easy read, but it has very straightforward and accessible background information. It details the reasons why rates may have fallen or increased lately. The report also provides well-informed forecasts on what’s likely to happen in the future.

Mortgage market forecasts

UK Finance is the name of the trade body that almost all banks and building societies belong to. It has a strict code of conduct and – even for those of us with a bit of a blind spot for figures – it has a lot of consumer-friendly information on its website.

If you want to know what’s happening with mortgages, you’re best of reading their Mortgage Market Forecasts. Is there a growing choice of loan products for consumers? Is there still demand for borrowing by buy-to-let landlords? What’s the forecast for home loans for the next two years? You should find all the answers here.

Arrears and possessions

This isn’t as ghoulish as it sounds. It really can give you a feel for the housing market if you know whether arrears on mortgages are rising or falling. You can also learn how many homes actually get repossessed by mortgage lenders because their owners cannot keep up with payments.

But take care with analysis. For example, as I write this there were just over 1,000 homes across the UK repossessed in the last three months. This might sound alarming but remember the total number of homes is many millions. The people compiling the data say on the website that current numbers of repossessions “remain significantly less than the long-term average.”

This site will also give information on arrears and possessions, mortgage arrears owed by landlords, and rent arrears incurred by private tenants.

Estate agents’ data from the front line

Excuse this shameless promotion for Move iQ but in addition to the tips, hacks and checklists we provide, there’s a monthly market barometer.

This differs from most other analyses because it draws on data from Propertymark, by far the largest and highest-regarded estate agents’ trade body. Each month 100 sales and 100 letting agents contribute to it, and my analysis uses this housing market data as a starting point.

These agents live and breathe sales and lettings. They often identify trends ahead of other housing market reports. I’m delighted to be able to bring this to you, updated each month, as part of getting you and your property market-ready.

If you’ve done your research and feel ready to sell, we’re here to help connect you with a top estate agent.

Last Updated: February 24th, 2025