We’re just out of summer, which is typically a quieter-than-usual period for the housing market, but this time there’s an interesting trend that points to one thing – a busy autumn on which we’re just embarking.
The latest figures and analysis from Propertymark are out. As a reminder this is the most ‘real time’ data on the housing market as its input from sales and lettings agents working on the front line of our local markets. Let’s take a look….
Housing market sales figures
This latest data is for July, and unusually there was a rise in prospective home buyers registering with Propertymark agent branches – 71 on average over the month, up from 69 in June.
There was no fall in viewings – the average agency branch undertook 93 in July, precisely the same as in June. Similarly, the average number of houses available for sale per branch stayed the same at 41.
And just as notable, there was a small rise in the average number of new buyer enquiries and sales per branch (around eight) and this also bucks the usual summer trend.
But one figure is not so good – now over 40% of agents report that the average time from a seller accepting an offer to exchanging contracts is over 17 weeks. That’s a shocking statistic and shows that long-term, the process of buying a home simply has to change within the housing market.
What does this data mean?
Almost all of these figures point to the same thing – summer didn’t really see any slowdown but instead showed a gently growing confidence as a number of factors come together.
Firstly, there’s stability after the election, and whatever one’s view of the result, the size of the government majority means a clear direction forward. Secondly, throughout July both interest rates from mortgage lenders and the general rate of inflation came down, spurring confidence. Thirdly, many agents tell me the poor summer weather stopped some people from going away and meant they didn’t defer plans to start looking for a new home.
Rental market overview
Regular readers of these reports on Propertymark data will know I’ve been exasperated that demand for rental property always outstrips supply. This has been at least partly because some landlords have sold up as buy-to-let has become more heavily taxed and more complicated to run.
Well in July there was a small change in focus. The average number of new prospective tenants registering with letting agents dropped from 99 in June to 88. On top of that the supply of properties to rent actually rose very slightly, to around 11 per branch.
Now you can do the maths – 88 people seeking 11 homes available from each agency branch still means a massive imbalance of supply and demand. But that ratio of eight applicants for each home is actually better than in recent months.
And there’s more evidence that the ‘rental ceiling’ has been reached. Agents say some 2.5% of their tenants are now in some form of rent arrears. I should emphasise this is still well below the long-term norm, but it shows a small increase earlier in 2024 and indicates that rents cannot continue rising indefinitely.
The autumn housing market
This has been one of those reports that really show the value of having access to this ‘under the radar’ data from estate and lettings agents. The figures give a valuable indicator to buyers and sellers, tenants and landlords.
The big message I get is for the sales market: if summer was as busy as this, then autumn could also be a busy period. There’s no reason for buyers or sellers to wait, as the action is already underway in the housing market.
I’ll be back next month to see if that trend continues. Until then…
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Last Updated: September 25th, 2024
